Based off of Kevin Pelton’s 2019-20 NBA regular season expected win projections, the playoff field next season will look something like this:
| West | East |
| #1 Houston Rockets | #1 Milwaukee Bucks |
| #2 Denver Nuggets | #2 Boston Celtics |
| #3 Los Angeles Clippers | #3 Philadelphia 76ers |
| #4 Utah Jazz | #4 Orlando Magic |
| #5 Los Angeles Lakers | #5 Toronto Raptors |
| #6 Golden State Warriors | #6 Miami Heat |
| #7 Dallas Mavericks | #7 Indiana Pacers |
| #8 Portland Trailblazers | #8 Brooklyn Nets |
Based on this projected playoff picture, I went through the theoretical first round of the 2020 NBA playoffs and tried to do some in-depth analysis on what each series could look like. I found this a very insightful exercise that was really helpful in framing the new look NBA – even if these particular match-ups don’t occur, doing this still forced me to consider what each team would look like in the playoffs, and what the most important questions facing each team in the regular season are.
As a note – I found projecting the rotation of each team to be pretty useful in gauging how each team would do (I know, shocking.) However, rather than project a starting lineup and backups, I wanted to feature each team’s likely closing lineup – the group on the floor at the end of a tight playoff game. For instance, I understand that the Lakers will be starting Anthony Davis at PF, likely even into the playoffs. However, there is a general understanding around the league that in the closing minutes, it would be utterly irresponsible not to play AD at center, especially given the limited options at the spot. Also, I included what I consider the core playoff rotation, so not every player that is in the regular season rotation will be included. If you aren’t consistently playing at MINIMUM 8 minutes per game throughout this round in the playoffs, you aren’t part of the core playoff rotation.
I ended up writing a good bit, so I’ll be publishing just the West for now. Stay tuned for the East first round!
With no further ado:
West Playoff Picture
#1 Houston Rockets vs. #8 Portland Trailblazers
Houston Rockets Expected Record: 54-28
Houston Rockets Closing Lineup:
PG: Russell Westbrook
SG: James Harden
SF: Eric Gordon
PF: P.J. Tucker
C: Clint Capela
Other core pieces: Austin Rivers (PG), Danuel House Jr. (SF), Gerald Green (SG)
Portland Trailblazers Expected Record: 41-41
Portland Trailblazers Closing Lineup:
PG: Damian Lilliard
SG: C.J. McCollum
SF: Kent Bazemore
PF: Zach Collins
C: Jusuf Nurkic
Other core pieces: Rodney Hood (SG), Hassan Whiteside (C)
Key Questions:
- How small does this series end up?
- This was one of the most interesting series-specific questions I came up with. The Rockets are notorious for their small-ball lineups, a necessity when engaged in battle with the ultimate small-ball lineup in Golden State the past few years. But the Trailblazers have an underrated ability to go small as well this season, especially if the Rockets want to play a similar style. I didn’t predict as much, but I think we could very easily see later games in the series feature lineups along the lines of:
- Houston: Russ Westbrook | James Harden | Eric Gordon | Danuel House Jr. | P.J. Tucker
- Portland: Damian Lilliard | C.J. McCollum | Rodney Hood | Kent Bazemore (or Hezonja if he breaks out) | Zach Collins
- This was one of the most interesting series-specific questions I came up with. The Rockets are notorious for their small-ball lineups, a necessity when engaged in battle with the ultimate small-ball lineup in Golden State the past few years. But the Trailblazers have an underrated ability to go small as well this season, especially if the Rockets want to play a similar style. I didn’t predict as much, but I think we could very easily see later games in the series feature lineups along the lines of:
- Who guards the guards?
- When I first went to ask this question, I didn’t expect it to be this vague. But at the end of the day, that’s what this series comes down to – which team does a better job at defending the opposing team’s dynamic backcourt duo. Each team has one obvious defensive matchup – Eric Gordon for the Rockets and Kent Bazemore for the Trailblazers – but that leaves the other partner with a pretty enticing matchup. For the Rockets, it means using one of Austin Rivers, Danuel House Jr., P.J. Tucker, or biting the bullet and trusting Harden or Westbrook to guard the second of the two Blazers star guards. For Portland, it means using one of Mario Hezonja, Rodney Hood, Anfernee Simons…yeah, the more I think about this, the more worried I am on Portland’s behalf. I trust Rivers as a defender, and think Harden is a better on-ball defender than given credit for (which isn’t saying much) – Portland on the other hand has no real defensive guard/wing options outside of Bazemore. Plus – Portland has to account for Eric Gordon, who himself has the offensive talent to outscore all four of the backcourt stars on a given night, especially when being guarded with the third worst perimeter defender on a team. In fact, I initially proposed this question as “who guards Eric Gordon?” Unless Hezonja really connects the dots defensively, I see the battle of the guards ending in favor of the Rockets – which will be the ultimate swing factor in the series.
Additional Notes:
- Hassan Whiteside can’t play a single minute against either Harden or Westbrook in this matchup; hell, even Eric Gordon might just absolutely carve up Whiteside. In most regular season matchups, Whiteside should be able to survive defensively and even make a positive impact around the rim, but the Rockets are too good about systematically targeting weak links with their dominant isolation offense. Whiteside might straight up punch the basket stanchion after a couple possessions of trying to defend Harden 1 on 1 in isolation.
- I have big hopes for Mario Hezonja this season. This was a guy that was 5th overall pick just four years ago back in 2015, and while his perimeter shooting hasn’t quite translated, he has demonstrated a decent level of skill and some impressive athleticism. This will be his first season on a halfway decent team, playing his first three seasons with Orlando before playing for the Knicks last season. For the first time since coming over from FC Barcelona, Hezonja will have the chance to play with offensive talent that draws far more attention than himself, allowing a clip of open looks unheard of given the guys he played with in Orlando and NYC. I am hopeful that his 3pt shot improves, but even if he is only able to hover around 34% on the same level of attempts, (around 3 a game) Hezonja should have much easier slashing opportunities, and I could see him being awfully useful as an advantage creator when Dame and C.J. are cooking. I know he will have to improve quite significantly, and that he has never had a truly consistent stretch of competence yet in his career, but I am optimistic that at least some of the blame falls on his situation, and that knowing the opportunity he has next season (not just individually, but in terms of team success) will motivate Hezonja to work harder than he ever has, to get in the best shape of his life, and really hone the skills that would allow him to play off of the two star guards in Portland.
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Pictured is Luka Doncic (#77) laughing with Nikola Jokic (#15) and Juancho Hernangomez (#41)
Denver Nuggets vs. Dallas Mavericks
Denver Nuggets Expected Record: 54-28
Denver Nuggets Closing Lineup:
PG: Jamal Murray
SG: Gary Harris
SF: Will Barton
PF: Paul Millsap
C: Nikola Jokic
Other core pieces: Jerami Grant, Torrey Craig, Malik Beasley, Monte Morris, Mason Plumlee (Wildcard: Michael Porter Jr.)
Dallas Mavericks Expected Record: 44-38
Dallas Mavericks Closing Lineup:
PG: Delon Wright
SG: Tim Hardaway Jr.
SF: Luka Doncic
PF: Maxi Kleiber
C: Kristaps Porzingis
Other core pieces: Seth Curry, Jalen Brunson, Dorian Finney-Smith, Dwight Powell, J.J. Barea, Boban Marjanovic
Key Questions:
- Who guards Luka?
- While Nikola Jokic is very likely the best player in this series, there is a slim chance Luka Doncic could outperform him. As amazingly transcendent as Jokic is at what he does, it is simply difficult to make quite as much impact as a big than as a primary ball-handling wing in today’s game. Just think about the best players in today’s game, especially in the early rounds of the playoffs, when teams are adapting to the now suffocating opposing defenses and exhaustive game planning for a particular opponent – LeBron James, Kawhi Leonard, James Harden, and Jimmy Butler are some of the best in the business when the playoffs come around, and all have similar roles to Luka, though they differ in how they go about that role. All of these players have the ability to dominate a game with an unstoppable ability to get off a shot coupled with an uncanny contested shot making ability when the time comes. Can Luka replicate these dominant performances in the playoffs, when he has time to study each and every opponent and expose kinks in the armor of opponents? Or will the inverse happen – will opposing defenses concoct a defensive scheme that limits his impact and minimizes his role for the Mavericks? Only time will tell, but this Nuggets defense would be an awfully interesting test – odds are USC Upstate’s own Torrey Craig would be the main matchup, with guards Garry Harris and Will Barton filling in spot minutes. Whether or not Doncic succeeds in the playoffs depends to an extent on his teammates, but primarily on how effective he is at creating panic amongst the opposing team. If Doncic can put pressure on his man to the point that the four other guys are thinking about him as well, then he will have the opportunity to create looks for teammates – who will have to capitalize, of course, but that is a whole ‘nother bullet point.
- Who guards who in the frontcourt?
- Discussing Nikola Jokic, the other star in this made up matchup, is a little trickier. I figured framing it as a frontcourt pairing made for a cleaner comparison and analysis, so that’s what I did. The Nuggets will be using Nikola Jokic and Paul Millsap primarily, with spot minutes from Jerami Grant and Mason Plumlee, while the Mavericks will (hopefully) be rolling out Kristaps Porzingis and a rotation of Dwight Powell and Maxi Kleiber. I imagine the teams both invert the matchups, with Millsap guarding Porzingis (the presumed center) and Powell/Kleiber guarding Jokic, while the two stars return the favor by guarding their defender on the other side of the floor. This 4/5 swap is pretty unconventional these days, where the power forward position is often made up of conventional small forwards who have been shifted up to the 4 as small-ball tactics have spread across the league. However, this matchup features some pretty tall, lumbering frontcourts, and in this day of limited post play there will be little concern that Millsap or the Mavericks duo will be too small or weak to defend the opposing center. It is certainly possible that the Jokic and Porzingis could match up 1 on 1, or that only one of the teams could swap 4/5 as I mentioned, which is why I posed this as a question. However, I am fairly confident this is the way both coaches would go, given both their past decisions and my analysis of the situation.
Additional Notes:
- Even if Michael Porter Jr. was able to play this season, even if he was more ready for the NBA than we would expect for a guy who has missed two consecutive years with major injury and hasn’t played organized basketball since high school, even if he is able to prove the doubters wrong next season – I still doubt he plays much, if any, in the playoffs. If MPJ plays the 3, it means taking minutes from one of Torrey Craig (who is needed to guard Luka) or Will Barton (who is very likely still a better scorer than MPJ on this team.) If he was to play the 4, it means attempting to guard one of the Dallas bigs – Kleiber, Powell, or gulp Kristaps Porzingis. If MPJ is truly able to showcase the generational talent that he showed off in high school, then it is certainly possible that he is a huge hit in the regular season; he could even win Rookie of the Year if everything breaks right. But expecting a guy like Porter Jr. – a tall, upright, skinny shooter – to defend anybody in the playoffs just sounds about as realistic as expecting a dog to make its bed in the morning. While I hope to see a strong showing from MPJ this upcoming season, don’t count on him being much of a factor in the playoffs, even if he looks good during the regular season.
- This will be one of the first opportunities for the NBA to show off Luka as one of it’s new faces of the league, and I really hope it happens. I cannot wait to see playoff Luka, one way or another it will be thrilling to see him take on a whole new level of NBA defense.
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Los Angeles Clippers vs. Golden State Warriors
Los Angeles Clippers Expected Record: 48-34
Los Angeles Clippers Closing Lineup:
PG: Patrick Beverly
SG: Paul George
SF: Kawhi Leonard
PF: Mo Harkless
C: Ivica Zubac
Other core pieces:
Golden State Warriors Expected Record: 47-35
Golden State Warriors Closing Lineup:
PG: Steph Curry
SG: D’Angelo Russell
SF: Klay Thompson
PF: Draymond Green
C: Kevon Looney
Other core pieces: Willie Cauley-Stein, Alfonzo McKinnie
Key Questions:
- How healthy are the stars?
- This series, like most, will likely come down to its stars. Kawhi and PG13 on one side, the original Dubs trinity Steph/Klay/Draymond on the other. When we look simply at the caliber of star power that would be on the floor, this sounds more like a finals matchup, or at the very least a Western Conference Finals series – certainly not one we’d expect to see in the first round of the playoffs. However, the strength of the West sets us up for such possibilities, especially given the injury Klay is recovering from – an ACL tear is unpredictable, and while he will have had about 10 months when April arrives, it is impossible to confidently forecast what stage of his recovery Klay will be at. Even further, none of the stars in this series have stellar health records, other than perhaps Draymond Green. Paul George underwent two shoulder surgeries this summer, one to fix a partially torn tendon in his right rotator cuff, and the other to fix a tear in his left labrum, and to simply assume a full, flawless recovery seems unwise. Kawhi Leonard, despite literally limping his way to a title last year, still seems to have lingering issues with his quad tendinopathy that initially flared up following an apparent ankle injury against, coincidentally enough, the Golden State Warriors in the ‘16-’17 NBA Western Conference Finals. The other side of the court is no different. Steph Curry has had injury concerns in quite a few playoff series, and it was his propensity for injury that landed him a 4 year, $44 million contract that carried through both MVP seasons and allowed the Warriors the cap flexibility to sign free agent Kevin Durant in the summer of 2016. Klay Thompson will be recovering from an ACL tear suffered in this year’s finals. And D’Angelo Russell missed 34 games in the 2017-18 season after a knee injury early in the season that required arthroscopic surgery. As morbid as it is to consider, there is a very real chance that this series could swing in favor of the healthier team. It is incredibly important to remember that health is not a black and white concept – as we saw in last year’s playoffs with Kawhi, being 100% healthy is not a requirement to play, especially not when the playoffs roll around. The stars that are able to sustain some semblance of a healthy record should be able to shine in this series.
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- Does the Dubs’ bench become anywhere near decent?
- When the Warriors won their first title in 2014-15, the bench was a source of pride. Former Nugget Andre Iguodala had agreed to go to the bench to allow a starting role for Harrison Barnes, where he joined veterans Sean Livingston, Mareese Speights, Festus Ezeli, and Leandro Barbosa – all effective role players that year. As of this past offseason, every player from that bench is gone, and in their place is a poorly assembled attempt at a bench squad. Due to the acquisition of D’Angelo Russell by sign & trade, the Warriors have effectively “hard capped” themselves, thereby limiting the amount they can spend in excess of the soft cap. The Warriors are almost at that limit already; in fact, the waiver of Sean Livingston was an effort to duck under the hard cap so that the team could sign the requisite number of players to field a team. This means that they have virtually no ability to make trades or additions to the roster, simply 1 for 1 moves. (such as cutting a minimum salaried player and signing another minimum player) At the moment, the Warriors’ second unit consists of Willie Cauley-Stein, Alfonzo McKinnie, Alec Burks, Omari Spellman, Glenn Robinson III, and some rookies. This is an incredibly weak group already, and the rampant injury concerns of Burks and Robinson could mean this group is even weaker than it appears on paper. For the Warriors to have significant postseason success, they need some level of contribution from the bench, even if the stars are firing on all cylinders. I would imagine that Steph and D’Lo will play staggered minutes to some extent, allowing close to 48 minutes with at least on high-level shot creator, but as we saw in last year’s finals once KD and Klay were out, there is only so much a single spectacular shot creator can do against a great defense. This whole time, I haven’t even mentioned their theoretical matchup in this simulation, but this issue is only accentuated by the stellar depth and defense of the Los Angeles Clippers. If the Warriors want to maximize one of their final few seasons with the Steph/Klay/Dray triumvirate, they will need to somehow galvanize this bench and find something that allows them to stay afloat in its minutes.
Additional Notes:
- This is the first of our three theoretical rematches from last year’s playoffs, and I think it is fair to say some of that energy could translate over into this series – on both sides. The Clippers, though now favored, know exactly how well they played against the Warriors last year, and Lou Williams especially has to be salivating for another chance at Golden State. The Warriors should be fired up too, though – this is a team that thrives on doubt, on the status as “underdog.” Steve Kerr is going to be all too happy to remind the Dubs how little faith the world has in them, how every expert on the planet picked the Clippers to not just beat the Warriors, but to win the title. This series hearkens back to the first time these teams met in the playoffs, against a much different Clippers roster but a very similar Warriors one, back in 2013-14, coincidentally another #3 vs #6 matchup. The Warriors lost in 7 games to the prime Lob City Clippers, but to even take it to 7 was a shock to most.
Utah Jazz vs. Los Angeles Lakers
Utah Jazz Expected Record: 47-35
Utah Jazz Closing Lineup:
PG: Mike Conley
SG: Donovan Mitchell
SF: Joe Ingles
PF: Bojan Bogdanovic
C: Rudy Gobert
Other core pieces: Royce O’Neal, Ed Davis, Jeff Green, Dante Exum
Los Angeles Lakers Expected Record: 47-35
Los Angeles Lakers Closing Lineup:
PG: Kentavious Caldwell-Pope
SG: Danny Green
SF: LeBron James
PF: Kyle Kuzma
C: Anthony Davis
Other core pieces: Avery Bradley, Jared Dudley, JaVale McGee
Key Questions:
- What can the Jazz do to slow down LeBron?
- Originally I phrased this question as “How do the Jazz stop LeBron,” but quickly realized that was a pretty unrealistic feat for just about any team. However, the Jazz are a proud defensive group, and Bojan Bogdanovic has done a pretty impressive job of frustrating ‘Bron two seasons ago, when the Pacers were able to take the Cavaliers to 7 games in James’ final season in Cleveland. The other starting forward on the Jazz, Joe Ingles, established himself as a cult legend with his disruptive defense on Paul George in those same 2017-18 playoffs. To ask any pair of players to guard LeBron James in the playoffs is an unfair request, but on paper, it seems utterly bizarre to even attempt to guard James with either of these forwards – neither are above average NBA athletes, neither have a height, weight, or length advantage, and Bogdanovic especially was hounded for his defensive ineptitude early in his NBA career. But fortunately for the Jazz, this is a 35 year old version of LeBron James. He still has the explosive athleticism, he still has that devastating scoring ability – but he cannot bring it each and every play anymore. What Ingles and Bogdanovic must do is to continually pester James, sticking to him like glue, never allowing a single easy basket. The duo is tasked not with shutting down LeBron, but getting on his nerves. After all, the more energy he expends posting up Bogdanovic or running around with Ingles on the perimeter, the less energy he has with the ball in his hands or in the last couple of minutes of the game. For the Jazz to have a shot in this series, the forward combo of Joe Ingles and Bojan Bogdanovic must drain LeBron’s energy and focus throughout the game. The more success they have doing so, the better the Jazz’s chances down the stretch – and I would expect most of these games to go down to the wire.
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- What moves do the Lakers make during the season?
- This question has the chance to nullify the rest of the analysis in this section. The Lakers had hopes of bringing in not just Anthony Davis, but a third star this summer. After failing to sign Kawhi Leonard, the Lakers had to settle instead for signing Danny Green and a few other role players to fill the void, but everyone and their grandma know that Rob Pelinka and the Lakers’ front office wants more than anything to make another blockbuster deal that would form the third “Big 3” of LeBron’s career. The elephant in the room is Bradley Beal, whom Tommy Sheppard and the Wizards seem keen on keeping around but will likely be in trade talks by the trade deadline, if not much sooner. It is tough to put together much of a package at this point – are the Wizards really giving up Beal for Danny Green + Kuzma – but I doubt that will stop the Lakers from offering. Even if they were unable to land Brad Beal, I would expect to see the team make a move for a point guard, a wing/forward sized player, (a la Marcus Morris) or perhaps a center if Dwight Howard and/or JaVale McGee aren’t doing the trick. Could it be Reggie Jackson on the Pistons? Goran Dragic from the Heat? The aforementioned Marcus Morris, newly of the New York Knicks? Or perhaps even Andre Drummond, big man on the Pistons? Nothing is truly off the table when it comes to the Los Angeles Lakers, and this season is truly a pivotal one – LeBron James is 35 years old, and even assuming Anthony Davis does re-sign with the Lakers this offseason, it would be irresponsible to squander yet another year of LeBron James, one of the greatest players the game has ever seen. Look for the Lakers to be on the trade market as early as December 15, when Danny Green (and all other newly signed free agents) will be eligible to be traded.
Additional Notes:
- I would peg this series to go 6 or 7 games, but even if Utah was able to bring it back to Salt Lake City for a Game 7, I really struggle to see any scenario in which LeBron isn’t able to lead the Lakers to a win in this series, even on the road.
- The more I think about this Lakers roster, the more I could foresee Kuzma sitting in the closing minutes of most playoff games, especially if he isn’t able to step it up defensively (which I don’t expect.) I am also more and more convinced as well that the Lakers would be best suited trading Kuzma at some point this season.
- This would be a phenomenal series, and I so hope we get to see it. Either way, I will be putting a star next to the regular season matchups between the two.
Resources:
https://www.newsday.com/sports/basketball/nets/nets-d-angelo-russell-1.28562190
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